Transmission Modelling

A QMRA model developed at IOM, the COVID-19 Exposure Model and Risk App (CEMRA), initially used to explore infection risk to healthcare workers (funded by the CSO), was adapted to examine infection risk in an office setting. In both settings, CEMRA was used to estimate the relative contribution of the different routed of exposure and to compare the potential effect of different interventions on infection risks. We have updated model parameters and conducted sensitivity analyses using measurements, literature reviews and re-analysis of other datasets (e.g. Human Challenge Study). Work was initiated in April 2021 and will be completed by December 2022.

Tools and resources:

Covid-19 controls visualisation:


App and R package:

For any enquiries, please contact [email protected]

For this research project, IOM have been working in collaboration with University of Leeds, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, Health and Safety Executive, University of Manchester. 

This study sits under theme 2 part of the wider PROTECT COVID-19 National Core Study. To find out more click here.