Mortality in the shale oil areas of Scotland: a feasibility study

This report develops the rationale for and explores the feasibility of doing a community mortality study of the shale oil area of Scotland. The major reason for being interested in health effects from the Scottish industry which existed from 1865-1962 is that a new industry is developing in the Western United States. With estimated oil shale rich reserves (30 barrels of oil per ton and greater) of 418 billion barrels of oil, an industry many times the size of the Scottish industry could be sustained for over 100 years.The rationale for a community mortality study in addition to the 6000 shale oil employee cohort-study already in progress at the Institute of Occupational Medicine is as follows: the industry was so concentrated geographically that a community study can be viewed as an extended worker study; by its very design a community study would include retired and former workers still alive and living in the area in 1950 – groups not included in the current cohort study; the two counties within which the industry existed but was outside the shale area itself would provide a good population for mortality comparison in the worker cohort study; it would enable examination of risks to community residents not part of the industry; and it would enable potential risk from long-term environmental contamination from the industry to be examined.The main findings are that the location of the industry in terms of size over time is verifiable from official census records, Secretary of Mines reports, location of shale mines and bings, and industry records. The Heavy Shale Area is confined to six civil parishes in West Lothian and Midlothian Counties which in 1961 had a population of 30,482. The Registrar General of Scotland has computerised cancer deaths from 1953 onwards and all deaths from 1971. Of great important methodologically, the deaths are identified by small areas so that separate age/sex/cause specific rates can be developed for the Heavy Shale Area, Light Shale Area and Non-Shale Area of the two counties. The population base is of sufficient size and structure that an adequate range of risk for most of the causes of death of interest can be measured. In addition to cross-sectional analysis of mortality, the use of birth-cohort analysis technique will provide a way to capture the mortality experience of those who lived at the time the industry was most active.It is concluded that it is feasible to do a community mortality study of the shale oil area for cancer deaths since 1953 and all deaths since 1971. Only through such a study can we be assured of fully exploiting the health effect information from the Scottish shale oil industry. “”